As we move into April, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its March housing market data. While headlines often focus on home prices, there’s a more important metric that deserves attention right now - transactions.
If you’ve been following my market updates, you know I emphasize this a lot. That’s because transactions are a leading indicator of where prices are headed.
Why Transactions Matter More Than Prices (Right Now)
In real estate, prices don’t typically move first - activity does.
When we start to see more buyers entering the market and more homes changing hands, that increased demand eventually puts upward pressure on prices.
On the flip side, if transaction levels stay low, price growth tends to stall.
March 2026 Market Snapshot
Here’s what we saw in March:
- Year-over-year transactions (March 2026 vs March 2025): up 1.7%
- Month-over-month transactions (February to March): up 1.4%
These aren’t huge jumps, but they are important.
👉 The key takeaway: activity is increasing.
Even modest increases can signal the early stages of a shift, especially as we move into the busy spring and summer market.
What’s Happening With Home Prices?
Prices have remained relatively stable:
- Slightly down compared to last year
- No major swings in either direction
This aligns with what we’d expect when transaction activity is only just starting to pick up.
The Other Key Factor: New Listings Are Down
Another important trend from March:
- New listings decreased compared to the previous month
This creates an interesting dynamic:
- Fewer new homes hitting the market
- Slightly more buyers transacting
👉 This combination helps reduce inventory and can gradually create upward pressure on prices.
What This Means for the Toronto Housing Market
Right now, we are not seeing dramatic changes - and that’s important to understand.
This is not a market that’s suddenly surging or declining sharply.
Instead, what we’re seeing is:
- A slow increase in transaction activity
- A tightening of available inventory
- Stable pricing with potential upward pressure
If transaction numbers continue to rise through the spring and into the summer, that would be a strong signal that the market is trending in a healthier direction.
What Should Buyers and Sellers Be Watching?
Keep an eye on one key metric:
👉 Total residential transactions
If this number continues to climb:
- Buyers may face more competition
- Sellers could benefit from stronger demand
- Prices may begin to edge upward over time
Final Thoughts
While the changes we’re seeing right now are subtle, they matter.
Real estate markets shift gradually, and early indicators like transaction volume often tell the story before prices do.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just trying to understand where the market is heading, this is exactly the kind of trend you want to be watching closely.
Have Questions About Your Home or the Market?
Feel free to reach out anytime - I’m always happy to walk through your specific situation and what these trends mean for you.
Watch the Full Market Update Video